The Great Fiscal Reckoning (... that has been occurring for over a decade...)

Premier Kenney rightfully acknowledged that what is happening in Alberta is a "great fiscal reckoning." With the fiscal update showing that the province will run a projected deficit of $24.5 billion, his statement "this is… the biggest deficit in the history of Alberta by a country mile" is correct.

Bluntly, the bottom has fallen out of the province’s budget.

There are many reasons for this deficit: the dramatic decline of oil prices, the drop in overall employment, and the shuttering of businesses. And then Covid happened.

But, is this really anything new?

Clearly not. In fact, this problem has existed for decades. This time we need to address our fiscal challenges and not by praying to the proverbial gods of oil revenues to bail us out because this time they won’t. It is time to take control of our destiny, right the fiscal structure that has been broken in this province for generations... and implement a sales tax.

I could go back even further and document the boom and bust cycles of the Alberta economy, but I’ll concentrate on recent history. For the last 12 years this province has run a deficit. Even prior to the cratering of oil prices in 2014, we were not able to balance our budgets. The governments of the day had numerous excuses not to act. They preferred to tell us a story that oil prices would return to their former glory, natural gas revenues would firm up, pipelines would be built and the government of the day was going to perfect how to turn lead to gold.

If all of these things happened -- or even one of these things happened -- we could continue to be the lowest taxed province by a country mile and the highest spending government by the same country mile.

At some point in time this jenga tower of a fiscal strategy was doomed to failure. It’s been on life support for years, but now it’s ime to give it a decent burial.

So why did it continue for so long? The reason is simple: there was always another election to win. The conventional wisdom was that you couldn’t bring in a PST and maintain power.. Although implementing a sales tax would have been good public policy... good public policy does not always equate to electoral success.

But in my view, the governments of Prentice, Notley, and possibly a future Kenney government, lost because they ran out of money. With no conceivable plan to bring in a solid fiscal structure that citizens could look at, say that makes sense, and build towards a better future, the writing was/is on the wall.

The so-called “Alberta Advantage,” codeword for ridiculously low taxes subsidized by the oil revenues, was a bedtime story we told ourselves but it was never actually true. It led to us not having sustainable funding to help diversify our economy, build infrastructure, develop arts and culture hubs, the list goes on. This was never an advantage, it was our Achilles’ heel.

So here is what I’m suggesting. Instead of being the lowest taxed jurisdiction by a country mile… let’s be tied for the lowest taxed province. Would this be so bad? To emphasize the point, if we adopted Ontario’s tax code we would bring in an extra $14.4-billion. In my view, it would not. It would allow us in good times to run a surplus and in normal times balance the budget. In periods of desperation like we are facing now, it would give us firm footing to help those that struggle and build a resilient path forward.

#MeToo: What I've Learned.

More than two years have passed since I faced the #MeToo accusations that led to me resigning from Cabinet. While it has been a whirlwind, I have taken pause every day since to reflect not just on the accusations, but how I have lived my life.

This came into sharp focus a month ago when the woman who accused me of sexual harassment in 2018 apologized for making libellous statements about Canadian public figure Warren Kinsella. She falsely claimed that he had abused women and hit his wife, and was forced to retract these statements. Kinsella wrote an article that provided some context for all of this, and you can read it in the link below. Here’s how he closed it: "... to Kent Hehr, wherever you are: I now wonder whether you deserved better. I wonder that a lot.”

• http://warrenkinsella.com/2020/04/apology-by-kristin-raworth

When I read this, my mind immediately went to the classic Clint Eastwood film, Unforgiven. My favourite scene is when Eastwood's character, an aging outlaw killer, stands above the corrupt sheriff who pleads, “I don't deserve this, to die like this. I was building a house.” Eastwood's character replies, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”

I stand by what I wrote to Canadians in the spring of 2018. The same woman who accused Kinsella alleged, when I was an MLA twelve years ago and she worked at the legislature, that I had called her “yummy” in an elevator. I did not, and do not, recall ever meeting her. I certainly don’t recall ever saying “yummy” to her (or to anyone, for that matter).

In response to this accusation I wrote, "I have never been perfect but have always strived to do better,” and this remains true today. The important question for me is whether I could become a better person from the #MeToo movement. The answer has proven to be yes.

I used to think that I could call myself a feminist simply because I was a progressive. I thought it was enough that I believed in equal pay for equal work, a woman's right to choose, and national daycare. I thought it was enough that I ran in elections under the Liberal banner, as a champion of women's liberation and gender equality.

But it was not enough, not even close.

I have learned that it matters not just who you affiliate with, but how you speak and listen. Being a progressive is a choice each and every day, to fight for certain values as well as to live by them. It meant looking at my own behaviour and language. It means humility by consistently choosing to be humble. It means renouncing attitudes once taken for granted.

The truth is: I have acted inappropriately at times in my life—sometimes inadvertently, sometimes by choice. I grew up playing hockey, and if there was ever a place for toxic masculinity to fester it was in the dressing room. Everything centred around sex; it was far from healthy or respectful, and I willingly took part. I spent more than my fair share of time sitting around a pub table where improper conversations about women were commonplace.

I didn’t see, or try to see, the inherent harm in what I thought was harmless banter. This was wrong. Even as an elected politician, I could revel in a bad joke with friends, colleagues and my own staff. I realize now more than ever that this was also wrong. I take personal responsibility, and what I stated in 2018 doesn’t just stand: it takes on new meaning for me every day.

Here’s another quote I love from Unforgiven. The Schofield Kid says, “Yeah…well, I guess they had it comin’.” Eastwood’s character replies, “We all have it comin’, kid.” I agree: sometimes we do have it coming, whether we deserve it or not.

At 50, there are more days behind me than ahead. I’ve learned during my time rolling this earth that, while “deserve” may have nothing to do with it, forgiveness does. I hope to be forgiven and I want to forgive others as well.

Exciting news.

Friends, I would like to share some exciting news.

Over the course of the last 12 years, it has been my honour to represent CalgarIans in the Alberta Legislature, Parliament, and as federal Minister of Veterans Affairs and Minister of Sport and Disability.

I’m striking out a new path helping people navigate the choppy waters of government relations.

I have joined with Robbie Schuett and Jessie Chahal to form HSC and Associates (www.HSCassociates.ca).

HSC and Associates is a Calgary-based public affairs consultancy firm providing individuals, businesses and nonprofits with strategic advice and counsel in navigating Canada’s political landscape.

We specialize in:

 - Government Relations & Public Affairs

 - Public Policy & Government Funding Programs

 - Speech Writing

 - Strategic Communications & Issues Management

 - Community Relations

 - Diversity and Inclusion.

During my time in public office I have gained comprehensive experience and honed my skills by dealing with complex systems and policies.  

I have been able to successfully connect a broad range of stakeholders in collaborating with government departments: local, regional, and national.

I am excited about this new chapter and confident that my experience and skill sets will enable me to make many valuable contributions to the clients HSC and Associates serve.

Warmest Regards, 

Kent

Alberta’s only friend (Yes, Trudeau).

One thing Albertans have traditionally looked upon with great suspicion is when a federal government, in particular a Liberal one, says: “We are here to help the energy industry.” And yet that could be the case if, as reported, the feds are planning a $15 billion infusion into the struggling energy sector.

Friends, we are in unprecedented times, and Premier Kenney was not being hyperbolic when he stated that Alberta is going through something similar to the Great Depression.

Since 2014, Canada's oil and gas sector has struggled -- and just when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse, it gets hit over the head with two sledgehammers: the coronavirus and an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The purpose of the war is to bankrupt higher-cost oil producing jurisdictions like Alberta, and I fear it might be successful.

And you can take it from me, the last thing that the federal Liberals want to do at this juncture, with their tenuous hold on power with a minority government, is invest $15 billion in the oil and gas sector.

The reason? Politically it is suicide.

Having talked to many Liberal MPs following the last election, they've all told me to a person that they got beaten up by progressive voters for purchasing the TMX pipeline. The result would be the same with this investment.

So the question is, why would the government bother?

It sure isn’t about getting more votes in Alberta. But it is in the national interest. Just like the purchase of the TMX pipeline.

The oil and gas industry is still a huge part of the provincial and the national economy. Without an injection of capital from the federal government, things will get worse -- a lot worse

To be clear, Alberta is on the brink of economic collapse. With the province’s finances a disaster, the Alberta government’s debt rating racing towards junk bond status, and the strong fiscal position of the federal chequebook, it is incumbent on the senior level of government to act.

Like the premier, I am not using hyperbole in saying that without federal intervention, this collapse may be permanent. If oil and gas companies suddenly go bankrupt, people lose their jobs, they can’t pay mortgages, and they leave. Small businesses go belly-up. It’s a vicious cycle.

If you are thinking that it's not possible, think again. With Western Canada Select selling for $7 a barrel in recent days, how long can companies remain in business? One only needs to look at share prices of energy companies to see what the market thinks about that proposition.

Without appropriate government intervention, Alberta will not be able to transition to a low carbon economy, because there will be no economy.

One of the purposes of government is to act in times of uncertainty and peril. Act by supporting people and, yes, intervening in this economic crisis brought about by the coronavirus and by Moscow and Riyadh engaging in a price war. Both of these situations will ultimately pass, but we need to take measures now to ensure there's still a viable economy in Alberta when they do.

The federal government's help is warranted, needed, and necessary. And it needs to happen today.

On Covid Policy Options

There is no doubt that coronavirus is going to impact our communities going forward in a big way. Some policy options that we should be considering at this time would include:

1. Universal basic income-with large numbers of people not working, $1500 a month would be welcome and help support the economy in this difficult time.
2. Year round schooling. Schools are going to be shut down for at least a month. We could make this up with a return to classes over the summer. Further, experts have long agreed that year round schooling is better for kids because they retain more information without the long breaks. This policy should stay in place even when The coronavirus scare has passed. 
3. Our healthcare system will face a difficult task moving forward and the women and men who work in this system will all rightfully deserve our gratitude and thanks. We should consider making a national holiday celebrating our healthcare system, its roots, its strengths, and its people.

On a personal note, I want to thank the great many people who are doing extraordinary things every day to ensure that people who may be “Shut in“ as a result of the coronavirus, are taken care of. Businesses are showing leadership-like Calgary Co-op by delivering care packages free of charge to those who are quarantined as a result of the virus. On that note, if we are shopping try and “shop local“. There are many small businesses that are struggling and could use our support.

On a final note, although we will be practising “social distancing“, When we do interact with our fellow travelers let’s be extraordinarily kind. We will get through this and we will rise stronger together.

Our best days still lie ahead!